"The LORD sees what happens everywhere; he is watching us, whether we do good or evil."

(Proverbs 15.3 GNB)

The consequences of whether I do good or evil is not instantaneous. Life is a series of actions and consequences. A bad circumstance may not be a "punishment" from God; it might be the consequence of a series of past stupid actions.

“Life is like a game of chess. There are many moves possible, but each move determines your next move. Where you wind up is the sum of all your past moves.” (Mort Walker)

God sees everything. He loves me and wants to direct me so my actions do not become a series of actions that lead me to a bad place.

Obedience may not be convenient nor painless, but it is the safest route.

See:
Every choice leads to another choice (2)
Fair consequence (2)
God sees everything